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A SpankingBy John Constantine How does a duck know what direction
south is? When everything seems planned out How come all my body parts so
nicely fit together? When everything seems planned out Satan lives here: on grain and earth, rain and air How come I just smoke and smoke and
smoke and curse every butt I spit out? - How Does a Duck Know? The Crash Test Dummies Okay. So I went a bit overboard on that last piece. It's to be expected. So lately the Asian market is in wild gyrations. Every single analyst worth his salt has something to say about what's going on in the right half of the world brain. Obviously, I have to have my say as well. Lately, what's been occupying my thoughts, is how the system is reacting to this enormous pulse. What things are being learned, patterns I can perceive from past events like the current "crisis". The first thing that strikes me is that this is an entirely predicable event. In America, we went through a similar crisis when the stock market collapsed in 1929. From all accounts, it sucked. It sucked for about 10 years. The same operating environment that caused the stock market crash in the US has been operating in Asia since the '80s. There's a lot of free money in the air. Things are fast and lose, and lot's of "partnerships" are formed to scam the most money for the least work are formed. Fine and dandy, but the empirical evidence seems to show that the party usual comes to an end. When the dust starts to clear that you have to come to grips that most of you are lying face down in the gutter drunk. It was a wild party, for sure. With your face down in the toilet, worshiping the god of excess, you seem to have some dim recollection that you may have done some really embarrassing things the previous night. What is that goat doing in your bed? So the shit starts hitting the fan pretty quick. The whole system is held together by a thin web anyway. Any hint of something going wrong and all the sudden no one is returning your phone calls. You've just lost three billion dollars and you can't get your broker on the phone. The true cause of the current mess is highly debatable. Our penchant for trying to find the one cause to a crisis is going to be with us for a while, but in these systems, it really clouds our view. |
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