Rhymes With Depression

By John Constantine

Yep, we're in a recession.  And it's going to suck.

I was holding off commenting on the internet bubble that burst so "unexpectedly" in the fall of 2000.  I mean, when something is so obvious, it seems almost obscene to comment on it.

Picard as Borg, lifesize

We all collectively lost our minds.  We didn't learn anything from the previous speculation bubbles and the very, very recent Asian crisis.

Not that I think we could have prevented it.  But we all saw it coming.

And what a fickle hand fate has.  One day the geeks were media darlings and now they're the villains of society and the scapegoats for all our economic woes.

Some 1.75 trillion dollars was literally flushed down the drain.  A lot of people's early retirement hopes.  A lot of people's retirement money.

And we're now trying to talk ourselves out of a recession.  This is very amusing to me.

Say what you want about the "science" of economics and its theory, the only reason money works is stated succinctly on the back of the United States one dollar bill:

In God We Trust.

Even the most cynical federal reserve banker has to admit that consumer confidence is a large factor in whether the economy works at all.

Economics, unlike say, Physics, works because we believe in it.  We put faith in it.

Not surprising that religions both loath it and love it.  They loath it because it's a competing god.  They love it - well, they love it because the religion is composed of humans. 'Nuff said.

So it's not an unreasonable assumption to make.  We actually could talk our way out of a recession.

Everyone speculates about magic, but to me, the economy is magic.  There is this complete engine we've created which is completely based on our faith in it.  When we stop believing in it we plunge into the depths.

I don't think we'll slip into a depression.  We may have had sufficient mechanisms in place to keep truly terrible things from happening.

After all, I didn't hear about a lot of suicides.

But I am having a lot of friends and other people I know finding themselves being laid off.

Much like the mystical kind of magic, it would appear that belief, while a necessary condition, is not sufficient to do what needs to be done.

When you buy into a belief structure, you buy into the mechanisms that rule that belief structure.  This the the structural side of the system.  The rules under which it operates.

And right now, there's a slew of crap in the system that is simply going to take the time it requires to wind it's way through the twisty mazes of the global economy.

And unlike the Asian meltdown, there is no reserve engine we can rely on to mitigate the losses.

There are disadvantages to being the world's largest economy.  When you have troubles, there is no big brother or sister or parents or richer friends we can turn to for help.

And if the rest of the world's economy's suck, then basically we're on our own.

It could be very bad.

I think it might be prudent to find the ruby slippers and pray that clicking our heels together three times will save us. 

August 3, 2001