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April 7, 2008
Mene Mene Tekel Upharsin
I figure we mine as well be playing a board game at this point, given the way the whole process for November 2008 is shaping up. Talking to various of my connections and friends, I find it fascinating to see on the one hand optimism that some how, some way the Democrats are going to win in November combined with the rather overwhelming advantage McCain has with everyone who isn't a hard core Democrat and following the political news like a heroin addict follow his junkie.
Again, it's pretty funny to see the now traditional liberal tactics grab hold of McCain's "Trollop n' Cunt" line that's been pretty widely reported. It's kind of beautiful, the way the appearance of the issue blooms across the various liberal blogs, popping up like daisies in the spring time. They're pushing the whole bit because they really, truly believe in their heart of hearts that if the American public just knew what McCain was really like, they'd instantly turn against him like a scorned woman, showering him with wrath equal to the free ride that he's been getting that irks them so.
And, again, the almost hilarious bit is that this is actually a feature, and not a bug. Basically, it's something that I can guarantee you is well known within the press already - the comment, itself, was made in 1992 for Christ's sake, so it's not like this is news to anyone. And there's the nub. The press has digested this bit of humanity from a "stressed" individual, weighed it and simply moved on. Just like they have over his "misstatements" regarding Al Qaeda in Iraq vis a vis Iran. Just like they have regarding the absence of his tax returns. Just as they will regarding anything else the man may say or do.
I do have to love how the whole McCain issue is metastasizing with the Democratic nomination process which - I believe - has another 4.5 months to go. I mean, it's like there's a cancer and rather than treat it, we've somehow managed to feed the damn thing and it's now taking over the entire body at an incredible rate. The Democratic party has always been - well, at least since when the Dixiecrats left the party in the 60's - well described by the opening dialog to the original Battle Star Galactica TV Series
"Fleeing from the Cylon tyranny, the last Battlestar, Galactica, leads a ragtag, fugitive fleet, on a lonely quest—for a shining planet known as Earth."
For as long as I've been on this planet, this party has always been nothing more than a ragtag collective of special interest groups that no one really wanted. During the 90's, in the period best known for the phrase "triangulation", the Democratic party - itself - became nothing more than a pivot point where by the clever politician could leverage himself into another 2, 4 or 6 year term.
And so we see the fruits of neglect in a party that is sharply and bitterly divided. Hardly a day goes by when I don't see a feminst blogger lash out at pretty much anything Obama for what seems like the slightest imagined gender based insult. And they're not really lashing out at the right because their gender based insults are far too numerous to count and besides, they don't care anyway so yelling at them is like yelling into the wind. Far better to harpoon your own, especially those who are perceived as supporting the interloper candidate who is taking away the only chance HRC has at a Presidential shot.
And god knows that every other special interest group is having a hay day as well. The Penn fiasco is being trumpeted from the virtual rooftops of every Obama leaning blog on the nets, kicking that dead horse for another stimulating round of "How Lame Is Hillary Today". Endless analysis of the gender vs. race split in the party. How any one who actually has a racial bias - read "takes race into account" when voting - votes for HRC.
And really, this stuff is just the civil interaction amongst friends. Friendly jousts, if you will. The really, really nasty stuff is only spoken of between cohorts as they hone their sharpest blades and test their most acidic sardonic statements in carefully isolated laboratories as they continue to ratchet up the pressure in the five months that lead up to the grand finale - or coup de grâce, if you prefer - in the massively nasty floor fight at the Democratic convention. Oh, I know that everyone is telling me that there isn't going to be a floor fight at the convention. But these are pretty much the same people who got Iraq wrong as well, and have consistently underestimated the political environment at every turn, too. So I take their predictions with a kilo or two of salt, so to speak.
Of course, the so called Super Delegates (I always imagine that they wear capes and have tight fitting spandex costumes under their suits and such) could end things now - either way - but true to the stereotyping that the American public has come to accept as the reality of the Democratic party, they are too busy handwringing, desperately hoping against all hope that we won't be in exactly the same position we're in now come the convention date. I admire Nancy Pelosi standing her ground despite an obvious threat by Clinton supporters that, you know, that it'd be a shame if something happened to the donations to the DCCC. All things considered, the threat certainly seems credible, given the way people are digging in their heels - on both sides of the issue - so I do admire her standing firm.
But given that all signs point to a dead heat in all the remaining Democratic primaries we have yet to endure, the writing is on the wall. Neither of the candidates will have a majority of delegates an it's up to the Super Delegates (in their shiny spandex, 'natch) who will have to make the decision.
And as has been repeatedly pointed out by all my friends and cohorts which are HRC supporters, the Democratic nomination process is not a democratic process - it's a party process. And so, at least, the HRC supporters that my biased sample encloses is perfectly happy with a result which doesn't in any way follow whomever has the elected delegate majority at the time of the convention, nor whomever has the majority of the popular vote. In their minds, given the situation with Florida and Michigan, the whole thing is a sham anyway and the count is meaningless. Therefore, they have no problem with rocking the boat.
So I guess we do have another 5 months or so to see how it all comes down, but even if there isn't a floor fight at the convention, there's still going to be a lot of fence mending that needs to be done regardless of whomever wins the nomination. And this will be a major distraction to the candidate - probably more of a real issue than Kerry's inability to spend money and fight back against the Swift boaters. I keep hearing how we'll all pull together in the end, but one thing I've noticed about the Democrats' myriad of special interests is that they have a penchant for holding grudges.
Because, in the end, this whole drama is really nothing more than a Prisoner's Dilemma writ large. And regardless of the obvious strategy everyone can see that they should be following to win in November, the sad truth of the matter is that they - as individuals - simply cannot actually choose that strategy. Thus the perverse dilemma in the way the game works out.
And so, like he did in the Republican Primary, McCain wins not by being the best or running a campaign that eats his opponents' lunches. Nope. He wins by sitting on the outside, serving burgers to his base while his opponents eat each other alive. He's already successfully come back from the dead and won his primary. I'm willing to bet even money at this point that he'll pull it off in the general as well.
Posted by Azael at April 7, 2008 9:02 PM
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