The president is betting that the winds of allegiance can and will shift in his favor and he likely chose Muttawakil because he is the most senior Taliban official in custody who is willing to strike a deal. Karzai -- and his supporters in Washington -- know they cannot beat the Taliban militarily and so are now trying to outflank the guerrilla group politically by fracturing it from within.However, choosing Muttawakil as a means for winning support among the Pushtun is a sign of desperation, as he does not have the support of the Taliban rank and file.
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Muttawakil also is too closely connected with the U.S. and Karzai governments to have any credibility among the Pushtun tribes. The Taliban can easily play the "erosion of culture" card against Muttawakil and the regime in Kabul to counter potential dissent within the ranks.
A surge in guerrilla fighting and the upcoming elections has set the clock ticking for Karzai. Both Kabul and Washington know that eventually the Taliban and its allies must be either beaten or co-opted, hence Kabul's ploy to woo the more moderate elements. However, the honey Karzai is offering -- Muttawakil -- won't be sweet enough to attract Taliban fighters from the field.
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